Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb4b…1433 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+0%) realized +$101 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%49W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,828per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$16
14 days+$33
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$99
world 4% +$9
other 3% +$1
sports 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,602) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×27.66 per $1 lost it wins $27.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$4,342
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses49 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage229d
Avg bet$1,828
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $4,340 $4,342 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,336 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $4,332 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4,328 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,324 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,319 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4,315 +$4 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $4,307 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,066 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 7? Jun 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,057 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $3,318 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,316 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $996 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? May 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 26? Feb 27 $1,604 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $1,602 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 24? Feb 25 $1,600 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 16-22? Feb 23 $1,599 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $1,597 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $1,596 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on February 19? Feb 20 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 19? Feb 20 $1,164 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 18 $1,592 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on February 16? Feb 17 $1,591 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 15? Feb 16 $1,589 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 14? Feb 15 $1,587 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $7.50? Feb 14 $1,586 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,584 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on February 11? Feb 12 $1,581 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on February 9? Feb 10 $1,577 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.10 on February 8? Feb 09 $1,575 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 7? Feb 08 $1,568 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Feb 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 26? Nov 27 $1,308 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 2 Nov 26 $1,304 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 24 Nov 25 $1,303 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 November 17-23? Nov 24 $1,301 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $104,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 21? Nov 22 $1,295 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $1,293 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.60 on November 19? Nov 20 $1,292 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,900 on November 18? Nov 19 $1,291 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16? Nov 17 $1,290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 16 $1,288 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $1,287 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $1,286 +$1 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 13 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $1,286 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 11 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,340 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $3,107 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $9 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $9 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $25 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $75 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $4,332 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,328 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,324 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4,319 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,315 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,307 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $180 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $2,066 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $2,057 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $3,304 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $0 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,342.09 · official $4,342.09 (match) · 151 history records