Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb48…9c83 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$360 (+80%) realized +$363 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$281
other 30% +$59
world 29% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 31% +74.3%
≤30d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 31% +74.3%
≤90d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 31% +74.3%
all 13 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 31% +74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 31% +74.3%
10% -16.7% 31% +57.7%
15% -24.7% 31% +42.4%
20% -32.1% 31% +28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$13 · ×8.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$363
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $170 +$282 +166%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$35 +171%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$26 +127%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $19 +$89 +460%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $22 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $452 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 17¢ $35 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $114 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 40¢ $56 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $47 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $21 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $19 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 16¢ $40 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $20 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.51 · official $101.51 (match) · 34 history records