Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb44…f72d sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,698 (+16%) realized +$4,584 · open +$114
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate76%39W / 12L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$175
14 days+$175
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$2,754
other 26% +$1,256
economics 18% +$175
world 9% +$117
crypto 9% +$60
finance 6% +$264
politics 4% +$68
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +165.3% +140.0% 100% 100% +140.0%
≤30d 8 +11.9% +1.3% 62% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 29 +25.5% +13.6% 72% 59% +19.9%
all 51 +9.3% -1.1% 76% 39% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 39% +4.6%
10% -10.6% 37% -5.4%
15% -19.2% 33% -14.5%
20% -27.2% 25% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,132) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$218 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$4,584
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses39 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage232d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 49¢ 97¢ $119 $235 +$116 (+97%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $108 $106 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$175 +165%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $176 +$124 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $278 −$278 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $115 −$114 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $92 +$97 +105%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $349 +$157 +45%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $12 +$1 +10%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $38 +$57 +150%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1,358 −$1,358 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $43 −$43 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $3,304 +$2,930 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1,757 +$1,123 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $135 +$116 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 29 $115 +$120 +104%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $542 +$1,008 +186%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Playoffs Apr 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 23 $120 −$118 -99%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 17 $11 +$5 +49%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Apr 17 $26 +$24 +96%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 17 $126 +$78 +62%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 17 $116 +$100 +86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 04 $1,530 +$28 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 26 $358 +$139 +39%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 22 $13 +$10 +81%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $26 +$2 +6%
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 22 $20 +$9 +44%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 22 $1,297 +$14 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $272 −$272 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,633 +$16 +1%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 11 $1,552 +$82 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 06 $1,440 +$125 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 February 2-8? Feb 12 $1,417 +$23 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,342 +$75 +6%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? Jan 15 $1,284 +$58 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 06 $1,132 +$35 +3%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $190 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $1,012 +$65 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 04 $1,000 +$202 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 19 $165 −$165 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 19 $97 +$26 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 19 $1,016 +$27 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $1,012 +$67 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $151 −$151 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $1,188 +$7 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $39 $0 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $100 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $111 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $106 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 49¢ $122 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 59¢ $118 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 59¢ $160 19d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $115 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $9 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $9 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $12 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $6 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $17 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $2 25d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 48¢ $92 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $349 28d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $41 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $24 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $10 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $296 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $196 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $57 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $394 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $2 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $1 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $8 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $14 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $9 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $160 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $143 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $1 32d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Sabres 40¢ $38 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.14 · official $341.14 (match) · 155 history records