Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb44…1c0d politics 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$475 (-0%) realized −$476 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,012per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$13
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$158
politics 35% −$55
sports 17% −$234
world 6% −$7
culture 6% −$8
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -16.6% -24.5% 8% 3% -12.4%
all 129 -3.8% -12.9% 20% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 9% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 9% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 7% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,451) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$23 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized−$476
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,012
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $582 $583 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $374 +$1 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,863 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,387 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,148 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $288 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,452 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,794 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,110 −$3 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $948 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,914 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $220 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $740 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $157 −$27 -17%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,537 −$4 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,988 −$2 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $312 41m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $312 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $318 20h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 21h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $241 23h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $242 24h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $236 24h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $237 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $582 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $531 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $532 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $481 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $482 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $617 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $618 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $647 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $648 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $651 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $652 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $703 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $704 9d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $557 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $558 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $544 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $545 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $609 17d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $610 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $669 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $669 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $489 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.75 · official $582.75 (match) · 392 history records