Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EB 0xeb43…4201 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$8,636 (+9%) realized +$8,667 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,844per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1,256est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,475
7 days+$9,002
14 days+$1,311
30 days+$8,972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$10,805
other 25% −$5,412
world 5% +$4,132
crypto 1% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +70.5% +54.3% 88% 88% +47.9%
≤30d 50 +15.5% +4.5% 50% 48% -0.6%
≤90d 50 +15.5% +4.5% 50% 48% -0.6%
all 50 +15.5% +4.5% 50% 48% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 48% -0.6%
10% -5.5% 48% -10.1%
15% -14.6% 46% -18.8%
20% -23.0% 42% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$2,397) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +30% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,872 vs −$1,513 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,703
Realized+$8,667
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,256
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage17d
Avg bet$1,844
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $2,734 $2,703 −$31 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $3,138 −$3,138 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $3,025 +$5,768 +191%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $2,085 +$2,079 +100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,642 +$1,446 +88%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $1,889 +$955 +51%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $887 +$1,002 +113%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $525 +$363 +69%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $997 +$527 +53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,614 −$2,954 -53%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $2,413 −$2,413 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $2,397 −$2,397 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,810 −$1,810 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,326 +$2,550 +110%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $3,025 −$3,025 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,061 −$252 -12%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $2,244 −$2,244 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $2,048 +$1,488 +73%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,022 +$1,267 +124%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,033 −$218 -21%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $3,874 +$1,861 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $600 −$600 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,418 +$4,132 +94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,052 −$2,052 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $734 −$734 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 16 $987 −$987 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,398 −$1,398 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,074 +$1,835 +88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,558 −$1,813 -71%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7,485 +$3,199 +43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $501 +$801 +160%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $58 +$40 +69%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $929 −$483 -52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $914 +$2,265 +248%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $1,329 +$330 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $813 −$584 -72%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $968 +$1,001 +103%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $789 +$1,055 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,821 −$2,821 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $975 −$975 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $866 +$2,096 +242%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 14 $3,649 −$3,649 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $792 +$2,344 +296%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $1,840 +$1,768 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $252 −$252 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $1,103 −$851 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,165 −$62 -5%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,996 +$6,632 +221%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,794 3m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $5,052 23m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 75¢ $3,741 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 29¢ $3,025 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,138 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,164 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2,085 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 57¢ $3,089 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $1,642 7h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $2,844 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 65¢ $1,889 27h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $887 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 82¢ $888 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $525 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,525 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $997 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $2,659 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $3 13d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $5,611 13d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,191 13d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,221 13d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 13d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $1 13d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $2,396 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,876 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,326 13d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,348 13d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $462 13d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,809 13d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $3,025 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,702.95 · official $2,702.95 (match) · 124 history records