Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EB 0xeb41…b1ad sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$37 (+9%) realized +$22 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%33W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$22
14 days−$21
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +36.9% +23.8% 67% 67% +8.5%
≤30d 58 +18.2% +6.9% 57% 53% -2.0%
≤90d 58 +18.2% +6.9% 57% 53% -2.0%
all 58 +18.2% +6.9% 57% 53% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 53% -2.0%
10% -3.3% 50% -11.4%
15% -12.6% 45% -20.0%
20% -21.2% 38% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses33 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage15d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Jeanjean (-1.5) vs Gorgodze (+1.5) Jeanjean 60¢ 100¢ $27 $45 +$18 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner FOKUS 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $3 −$1 -22%
Ruiz vs. Tiffon: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $2 +$1 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $8 +$9 +115%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios Jun 24 $15 +$3 +22%
Andreeva vs. Day: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 24 $11 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $4 +$3 +62%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $2 +$4 +197%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $2 +$3 +118%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $8 −$3 -35%
Kalinskaya vs. Ruse: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $15 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $9 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $5 +$7 +134%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $10 +$4 +41%
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -88%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $19 +$7 +38%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $4 +$6 +129%
Daniel vs. Nava: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $18 +$6 +30%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros vs Matei Florin Breaz Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $11 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$4 -77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
ITF Varnamo: Jonathan Mridha vs Aristotelis Thanos Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Set Handicap: Gagliardo (-1.5) vs Maksimovic (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Boris Butulija vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$5 +85%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +76%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 +$4 +226%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Yellow Submarine (BO1) - The International Euro Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $4 +$2 +41%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $8 +$8 +99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$6 +116%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 +$3 +68%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $3 +$3 +109%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$4 -60%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 +$20 +222%
Map Handicap: Invicta (-1.5) vs L.820 (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$6 +294%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Jeanjean (-1.5) vs Gorgodze (+1.5) BUY Jeanjean 60¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 37¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner SELL Enterprise Esports 34¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner BUY Enterprise Esports 42¢ $3 1h
Ruiz vs. Tiffon: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch SELL Dane Sweeny 100¢ $16 1h
Ruiz vs. Tiffon: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch BUY Dane Sweeny 46¢ $8 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios SELL Tomas Barrios 98¢ $18 3h
Andreeva vs. Day: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios BUY Tomas Barrios 79¢ $7 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios BUY Tomas Barrios 81¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 100¢ $7 3h
Andreeva vs. Day: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 60¢ $11 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner SELL AM Gaming 100¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 61¢ $4 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin SELL Oceane Dodin 45¢ $5 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Oceane Dodin 67¢ $8 4h
Kalinskaya vs. Ruse: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 45¢ $2 4h
Kalinskaya vs. Ruse: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 89¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick SELL largadosypelados 54¢ $8 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 33¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 62¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 100¢ $12 45h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY Misa Esports 50¢ $6 2d
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Enterprise Esports 100¢ $15 2d
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Enterprise Esports 70¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 42¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.68 · official $44.68 (match) · 118 history records