Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb3b…8f62 crypto 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%237W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day157.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 347 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 67% -11.0%
≤30d 347 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 67% -11.0%
≤90d 347 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 67% -11.0%
all 347 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 67% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 67% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 57% -19.5%
15% -27.4% 16% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses237 / 110
Open positions2
Markets (closed)347 / 349
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day157.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 85¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$13 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.59 · official $6.14 (match) · 748 history records