trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 71% | 43% | +4.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 71% | 43% | +4.1% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 71% | 43% | +4.1% |
| all | 7 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 71% | 43% | +4.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.4% | 43% | +4.1% |
| 10% | -5.6% | 29% | -5.9% |
| 15% | -14.7% | 14% | -14.9% |
| 20% | -23.1% | 14% | -23.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 70¢ | 70¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | No | 75¢ | 73¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 34¢ | 40¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+17%) |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 74¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $8 | +$2 | +20% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 13 | $8 | +$2 | +28% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $3 | +$2 | +67% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 12 | $8 | +$1 | +8% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 12 | $6 | $0 | -2% |