Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xeb3a…ccbe world 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+12%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$5
tech 4% +$2
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.4% +4.4% 71% 43% +4.1%
≤30d 7 +15.4% +4.4% 71% 43% +4.1%
≤90d 7 +15.4% +4.4% 71% 43% +4.1%
all 7 +15.4% +4.4% 71% 43% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 43% +4.1%
10% -5.6% 29% -5.9%
15% -14.7% 14% -14.9%
20% -23.1% 14% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×9.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.35 per $1 lost it wins $23.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 75¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 75¢ $4 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 35h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 36h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.87 · official $17.87 (match) · 55 history records