Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb35…b6ab sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate72%34W / 13L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$16
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$15
other 38% −$3
politics 10% −$9
crypto 8% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +16.5% +5.4% 79% 59% +5.3%
≤30d 30 +16.1% +5.1% 80% 57% +3.8%
≤90d 47 +2.0% -7.7% 72% 57% -2.6%
all 47 +2.0% -7.7% 72% 57% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 57% -2.6%
10% -16.6% 38% -12.0%
15% -24.6% 28% -20.5%
20% -32.0% 17% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses34 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 58
History coverage80d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 56¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 88¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +123%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +182%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 24 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +16%
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? Apr 05 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -96%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$2 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 64¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $3 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $5 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $3 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 21h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 21h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 63¢ $3 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 42¢ $4 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 45h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 55¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.39 · official $30.39 · 104 history records