Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb32…04bf other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 24% −$23
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage134d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $238 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $260 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $593 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $523 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $389 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $179 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 15h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 16h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 18h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 19h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 21h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 22h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 24h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 26h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 27h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 33h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 34h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 43h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 45h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 46h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 47h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.83 · official $58.83 (match) · 1341 history records