Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb31…12b3 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 218d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$203
other 2% −$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -35.8% -41.9% 40% 24% -29.4%
≤30d 25 -35.8% -41.9% 40% 24% -29.4%
≤90d 25 -35.8% -41.9% 40% 24% -29.4%
all 26 -19.0% -26.7% 42% 27% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 27% -28.6%
10% -33.7% 23% -35.4%
15% -40.1% 19% -41.7%
20% -46.0% 15% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage218d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 39¢ 54¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $110 −$66 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $211 −$97 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $124 +$62 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $132 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $89 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Thailand win Miss Universe 2025? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philippines win Miss Universe 2025? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-11-23? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 22? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win Miss Universe 2025? Nov 21 $2 +$8 +400%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $40 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $39 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $75 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $78 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $86 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $95 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.82 · official $10.71 · 99 history records