Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb30…1631 weather 1163 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-1%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate59%683W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$30
14 days+$4
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$66
sports 27% −$35
crypto 27% −$16
other 2% −$19
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -5.8% -14.7% 65% 49% -16.8%
≤30d 345 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 52% -14.7%
≤90d 1158 -14.3% -22.5% 59% 27% -12.4%
all 1158 -14.3% -22.5% 59% 27% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 27% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 21% -20.8%
15% -36.7% 17% -28.4%
20% -42.9% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses683 / 475
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1158 / 1163
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +45%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$2 +29%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$5 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $7 +$4 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$5 +44%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$4 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 87¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 71¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 71¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 71¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $2 14h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 62¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close SELL Game Master 100¢ $10 15h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner SELL Game Master 100¢ $11 15h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Game Master 100¢ $14 15h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 68¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 77¢ $5 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 77¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 77¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 77¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 91¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 91¢ $4 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 91¢ $3 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 91¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 70¢ $2 18h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 72¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 68¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.71 · official $14.71 (match) · 3500 history records