Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb2b…82e0 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% $0
other 24% −$1
politics 5% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 43 -0.8% -10.3% 42% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage400d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $76 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $80 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $14 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $17 $0 +2%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 20 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 17 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $35 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $6 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $41 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $18 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $42 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $28 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.64 · official $1.64 (match) · 150 history records