Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb2b…9281 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 498d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$727 (-10%) realized −$727 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%40W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$728
crypto 10% +$1
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 -0.1% -9.6% 77% 0% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -18.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -26.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -33.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$61 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

498d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses40 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage498d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $74 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 03 $44 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $39 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $5,607 −$728 -13%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Mar 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $20 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $275 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $74 31d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $71 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 99¢ $21 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 123d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $65 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $57 183d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 211d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 241d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $49 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 302d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $44 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $8 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY No 100¢ $52 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 364d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 394d
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 396d
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 87¢ $4,879 413d
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5,607 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.41 · official $69.41 (match) · 112 history records