Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb29…228f politics 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$4
politics 33% −$8
sports 18% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
culture 5% $0
world 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -6.5% -15.4% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage372d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? May 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $95 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $93 +$1 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $1 $0 -20%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $2 $0 -12%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $194 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $2 $0 -14%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $101 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? Dec 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $101 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $2 $0 -18%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 31 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 30 $105 −$1 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $106 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $95 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $96 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 98d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 106d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 110d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 125d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $97 136d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $97 139d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $93 140d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 141d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $97 142d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $97 144d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 144d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $97 145d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $97 146d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $97 148d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $98 148d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $98 151d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $96 152d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $96 155d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $94 156d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $94 156d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $95 157d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $95 158d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY No 99¢ $93 160d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 163d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $93 164d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $93 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records