Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb26…05f5 politics 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$7
other 25% −$3
politics 18% +$13
crypto 9% $0
sports 4% −$2
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 20% -7.4%
≤30d 14 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 14 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 7% -8.4%
all 53 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 6% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -8.2%
10% -19.8% 2% -17.0%
15% -27.5% 2% -25.0%
20% -34.7% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage304d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $73 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $79 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $56 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $37 +$4 +10%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 24 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 24 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 21 $22 $0 -1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $13 +$16 +120%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $7 $0 +6%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $4 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 06 $3 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 05 $1 $0 +12%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 05 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $35 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 20 $8 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 20 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $4 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $35 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $10 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $26 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $27 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $36 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 40h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $15 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $25 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $39 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.12 · official $40.12 (match) · 241 history records