Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb25…9576 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-47%) realized −$176 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$21
world 45% −$160
other 2% −$7
sports 1% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -30.2% -36.8% 27% 27% +1.6%
≤30d 26 -30.2% -36.8% 27% 27% +1.6%
≤90d 38 -45.3% -50.5% 21% 21% -47.5%
all 38 -45.3% -50.5% 21% 21% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.5% 21% -47.5%
10% -55.2% 18% -52.5%
15% -59.6% 13% -57.1%
20% -63.5% 11% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage60d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 0¢ 58¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 31¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$76 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +182%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$1 -31%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? Apr 21 $6 −$2 -35%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $146 −$146 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.38 · official $15.05 (match) · 110 history records