Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb24…22e2 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,010 (-1%) realized −$2,010 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,621per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$29
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,861
politics 32% −$97
sports 13% −$71
economics 2% −$7
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 118 -10.9% -19.3% 7% 3% -10.8%
all 152 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 11% -10.3%
10% -19.4% 11% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 9% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,520) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$27 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,010
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,621
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,484 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,910 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,638 −$3 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $364 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $4,829 −$6 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,129 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,638 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,084 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $52 +$62 +119%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,269 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,480 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,520 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $701 +$1 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,032 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,647 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,147 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,384 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,769 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,669 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $58 +$63 +109%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 20 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $6,346 −$8 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $4,527 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $4,279 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,714 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $2,917 −$4 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,668 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $3,778 −$5 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $209 47h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $310 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $310 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,691 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,694 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,550 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,552 4d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,635 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,638 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,364 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,366 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $264 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,641 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,539 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,541 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,555 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,556 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,564 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,566 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,463 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,465 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,634 13d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,635 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 512 history records