Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb23…fb05 crypto 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,839 (-15%) realized −$1,839 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%112W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,195
7 days−$2,150
14 days−$2,129
30 days−$1,952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,019
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -86.5% -87.8% 6% 6% -96.1%
≤30d 118 -50.6% -55.3% 24% 23% -81.0%
≤90d 183 -23.9% -31.2% 36% 36% -53.5%
all 244 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 45% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 45% -24.1%
10% -23.5% 43% -31.3%
15% -30.9% 42% -38.0%
20% -37.7% 41% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$48 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,839
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses112 / 132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage158d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 724 history records