Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb23…a436 sports 26 markets active 21h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$299 (+7%) realized +$299 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$16
14 days+$22
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$299
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +72.4% +56.0% 80% 80% +43.3%
≤30d 16 +17.9% +6.7% 62% 62% +10.1%
≤90d 17 +11.0% +0.4% 59% 59% +4.3%
all 24 +8.2% -2.1% 58% 54% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 54% -3.1%
10% -11.5% 54% -12.4%
15% -20.1% 50% -20.9%
20% -27.9% 42% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$89 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage230d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 63¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $8 +$6 +75%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $4 +$5 +133%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $6 +$3 +40%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $8 +$4 +45%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 31 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 28 $3 +$2 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $6 +$7 +122%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 21 $6 +$4 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 239.5 Oct 30 $277 +$325 +117%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Oct 30 $334 +$347 +104%
Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 Oct 30 $503 +$428 +85%
Rolex Paris Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Zverev Oct 30 $2,163 +$44 +2%
Rolex Paris Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Jannik Sinner Oct 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) Oct 29 $485 −$485 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Oct 29 $366 −$366 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $8 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $4 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $4 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 30¢ $3 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 8d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $6 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $7 14d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $6 16d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $2 18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $9 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $5 23d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $0 25d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $6 25d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 26d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 28d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 28d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 31d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 32d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 34d
Rolex Paris Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Jannik Sinner BUY Bergs $7 230d
Rolex Paris Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 98¢ $2,163 230d
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) BUY Pelicans 48¢ $464 230d
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) BUY Pelicans 48¢ $22 230d
Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 BUY Over 54¢ $503 230d
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) BUY Lakers 49¢ $324 230d
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) BUY Lakers 49¢ $10 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.58 · official $108.58 (match) · 80 history records