Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xeb22…808a
world · 127 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$70,923 +36%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$90,384 · open −$771
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$93,206
Realized+$90,384
Unrealized−$771
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses55 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$355
Open positions41
Markets (closed)88 / 127
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,534
Trades / day138.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 41 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42,125
7 days+$55,912
14 days+$59,711
30 days+$90,384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $11,831 $12,992 +$1,161 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $9,185 $11,100 +$1,915 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 57¢ $10,375 $10,350 −$25 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 86¢ $8,415 $8,568 +$153 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 68¢ $6,626 $8,495 +$1,869 (+28%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $6,048 $5,801 −$247 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $6,610 $5,250 −$1,360 (-21%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $5,231 $5,023 −$208 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $3,770 $4,375 +$605 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 48¢ $3,668 $3,879 +$212 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 53¢ 71¢ $2,650 $3,550 +$900 (+34%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $2,850 $2,050 −$800 (-28%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 73¢ 74¢ $1,825 $1,838 +$12 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 58¢ 64¢ $1,652 $1,812 +$161 (+10%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,613 $1,527 −$86 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 45¢ 38¢ $1,125 $962 −$162 (-14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $270 $810 +$540 (+200%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $800 $795 −$5 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $3,990 $780 −$3,210 (-80%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 30¢ 30¢ $750 $762 +$12 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 17¢ 20¢ $425 $488 +$62 (+15%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $69 $422 +$353 (+509%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $1,037 $400 −$637 (-61%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $1,027 $285 −$742 (-72%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $38 $184 +$146 (+384%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $471 +$42,938 +9119%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $794 −$781 -98%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $412 +$53 +13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 13 $7 +$2,410 +32252%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 13 $173 −$173 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 13 $675 −$675 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 13 $852 −$849 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 13 $576 −$575 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 12 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 11 $255 +$70 +28%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $277 +$352 +127%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 11 $850 +$1,751 +206%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $134 +$112 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 10 $171 −$171 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 10 $675 −$675 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $8,160 +$360 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 10 $780 +$14 +2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $153 −$151 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $185 −$185 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 08 $540 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 08 $690 +$17 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 08 $205 −$205 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 08 $333 +$33 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 08 $295 +$16 +5%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 08 $160 −$160 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 08 $700 −$700 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 08 $180 −$180 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $2,050 +$75 +4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1,500 +$1,340 +89%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,081 +$2,848 +263%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,190 +$5,046 +424%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $903 +$1,347 +149%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $921 +$2,844 +309%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 07 $180 −$180 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,127 +$165 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 07 $65 +$227 +350%
Spread: Knicks (-19.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 06 $658 +$611 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1,787 +$68 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 06 $332 +$647 +195%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 06 $963 +$9 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $5,895 −$574 -10%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 06 $340 +$160 +47%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 06 $430 +$70 +16%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $740 +$1,760 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% +$38,738
politics 16% +$1,331
finance 9% −$590
sports 8% +$46,063
other 2% −$74
tech 1% +$30
crypto 1% +$4,113
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $1,125 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $313 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $106 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $330 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1,260 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $600 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 73¢ $1,825 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $439 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1,200 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $630 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $8 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $8 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $183 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $127 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $27 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $74 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $44 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $226 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $8,400 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $510 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,300 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $3,668 6h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 6h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,400 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,668 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+53.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +116.3% +95.7% 53% 36% +59.0%
≤30d 88 +69.7% +53.5% 62% 47% +48.1%
≤90d 88 +69.7% +53.5% 62% 47% +48.1%
all 88 +69.7% +53.5% 62% 47% +48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover138.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.5% 47% +48.1%
10% +38.8% 39% +33.9%
15% ← realistic here +25.4% 33% +20.9%
20% +13.1% 30% +9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93,205.53 · official $93,093.82 (match) · 3500 history records