Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb20…a80f crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-4%) realized −$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%8W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$144
14 days−$48
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$27
sports 7% −$74
other 4% −$42
world 1% −$6
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -52.7% -57.2% 21% 21% -33.8%
≤30d 50 -36.0% -42.1% 16% 16% -20.4%
≤90d 60 -46.7% -51.7% 13% 13% -23.2%
all 60 -46.7% -51.7% 13% 13% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.7% 13% -23.2%
10% -56.4% 10% -30.5%
15% -60.6% 10% -37.3%
20% -64.4% 10% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$13 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage36d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $125 +$117 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$33 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$22 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$56 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$310 +1163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $50 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $158 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 38¢ $21 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $60 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 39¢ $84 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $6.18 (match) · 96 history records