Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb1e…7197 world 206 markets active 6d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 204L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$12
other 21% −$15
world 20% −$18
economics 14% −$4
sports 9% −$5
crypto 4% −$29
finance 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 16 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 76 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 204 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage110d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 12¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 11 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $91 −$4 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 03 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $135 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 02 $31 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $25 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $72 −$2 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $75 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $3 $0 -13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 09 $2 $0 -9%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $3 $0 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 08 $29 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $60 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $131 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $35 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 11¢ $6 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 12¢ $7 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 41¢ $28 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 45¢ $31 6d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 50¢ $34 6d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 51¢ $35 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 59¢ $43 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 60¢ $44 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 60¢ $44 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 64¢ $47 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $59 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $10 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $9 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $13 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $19 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY No 16¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 1540 history records