Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb16…72bf sports 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$921 (-2%) realized −$929 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate78%249W / 69L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days−$395
14 days−$419
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$96
sports 34% −$713
world 10% −$323
politics 1% +$58
crypto 0% −$74
finance 0% +$20
economics 0% +$7
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.5% -31.7% 70% 10% -19.5%
≤30d 61 -5.3% -14.3% 75% 46% -11.8%
≤90d 212 -0.4% -9.9% 81% 42% -9.3%
all 318 -3.9% -13.0% 78% 35% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 35% -11.5%
10% -21.4% 13% -20.0%
15% -29.0% 5% -27.7%
20% -35.9% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$76 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized−$929
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses249 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)318 / 319
History coverage114d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $650 $658 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $597 +$57 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $561 +$34 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $536 +$39 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $492 +$43 +9%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $342 +$39 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $105 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $525 −$525 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $321 +$24 +7%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Jun 11 $201 +$34 +17%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $101 +$64 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $205 +$38 +19%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $300 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $137 +$61 +45%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $116 +$20 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $318 +$101 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $310 +$6 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 06 $306 −$306 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $640 +$66 +10%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $116 +$25 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $120 +$13 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $491 +$129 +26%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner May 27 $141 +$14 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $112 +$39 +34%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $70 −$38 -54%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Irem Kurt May 25 $45 +$15 +34%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs May 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? May 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $40 +$12 +29%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $40 +$7 +17%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $40 +$5 +12%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $41 +$67 +165%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 +$7 +13%
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $325 −$50 -16%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one - Game 2 Winner May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner May 21 $30 +$23 +76%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one - Game 1 Winner May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $295 +$36 +12%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $101 +$23 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $652 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $597 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $595 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $561 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 29¢ $10 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $536 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $535 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $492 30h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $105 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $525 5d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $342 5d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 97¢ $120 7d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 68¢ $101 7d
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League SELL Five Fears 100¢ $235 7d
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League BUY Five Fears 85¢ $201 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Warriors 98¢ $165 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 59¢ $101 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $114 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $126 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 8d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $306 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $205 8d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 100¢ $206 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 97¢ $200 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 9d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun BUY New York Liberty 85¢ $116 9d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.53 · official $657.53 (match) · 833 history records