Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb15…ad34 crypto 516 markets active 6d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$457 (-10%) realized −$457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%123W / 394L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$68
14 days−$301
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$305
sports 22% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -54.3% -58.7% 2% 2% -55.6%
≤30d 407 -38.4% -44.3% 18% 13% -19.3%
≤90d 517 -33.0% -39.4% 24% 18% -20.1%
all 517 -33.0% -39.4% 24% 18% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 18% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 15% -27.8%
15% -50.5% 11% -34.8%
20% -55.4% 9% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses123 / 394
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)517 / 516
History coverage46d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 48¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 338 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.34 · official $7.34 (match) · 2065 history records