Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb14…ac37 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate95%19W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$1
crypto 16% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% +$3
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 100% 50% -9.3%
≤30d 16 +2.8% -7.0% 94% 12% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +2.4% -7.3% 95% 10% -8.9%
all 20 +2.4% -7.3% 95% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 10% -8.9%
10% -16.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -24.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×6.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×123.36 per $1 lost it wins $123.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses19 / 1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)20 / 31
History coverage44d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $285 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 21 $183 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 07 $197 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will 100 Thieves win VCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1? May 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Virtus.pro win DreamLeague Season 29? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand May 20 $3 $0 +2%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $182 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $183 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $183 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $14 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $197 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $197 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $18 16d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $86 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 21d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 31d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 31d
Will BNB dip to $400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $10 31d
Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 98¢ $3 31d
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following BUY No 100¢ $5 31d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May BUY No 100¢ $4 32d
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 32d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 32d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $10 32d
Will Virtus.pro win DreamLeague Season 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 32d
Will 100 Thieves win VCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1? BUY No 96¢ $2 32d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 32d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 32d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 32d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 32d
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliame BUY No 100¢ $5 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.20 · official $394.20 (match) · 87 history records