Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb12…6f8a other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,309 (-1%) realized −$1,309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,093per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$98
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,611
politics 36% −$56
sports 3% +$314
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +12.9% +2.2% 17% 11% -8.8%
≤90d 109 +1.6% -8.0% 11% 9% -10.5%
all 109 +1.6% -8.0% 11% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 9% -10.5%
10% -16.8% 9% -19.1%
15% -24.9% 8% -26.9%
20% -32.2% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,648) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$20 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$1,309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,093
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $355 $355 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,131 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $319 +$1 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,572 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,232 −$5 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $882 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,976 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,469 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $805 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $858 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $61 +$64 +105%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $763 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $351 +$1 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 26 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 24 $80 +$210 +262%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $734 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $57 +$67 +119%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $51 +$36 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $33 +$30 +93%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $312 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $332 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $5,358 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $2,121 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $728 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $348 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 15 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $515 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $226 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $226 2h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 45h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $419 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $443 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $444 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $568 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $568 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $446 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $446 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $436 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $436 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $407 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $407 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $411 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $412 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $355 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $734 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $735 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $735 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $736 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $834 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $835 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $605 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $606 10d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $880 11d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $882 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $819 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $706 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.34 · official $355.34 (match) · 325 history records