Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xeb0f…b951 weather 729 markets active 3h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,777 (+1%) realized +$2,777 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%704W / 24L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$446
14 days+$683
30 days+$1,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,687
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 9% -7.6%
≤30d 305 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 728 +3.4% -6.4% 97% 7% -8.4%
all 728 +3.4% -6.4% 97% 7% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 7% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 5% -17.1%
15% -23.5% 4% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.62 per $1 lost it wins $13.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,777
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses704 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)728 / 729
History coverage50d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June Jun 22 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $523 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $395 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $458 +$83 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 22 $87 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $392 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 +$10 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $324 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $665 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $89 +$71 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $537 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $203 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $344 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $387 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $382 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $87 +$73 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $443 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $391 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2,395 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $449 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $213 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $396 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $395 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $538 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $385 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $400 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $395 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $66 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $62 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $71 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $66 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $65 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $355 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $113 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $541 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $41 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $318 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $1.10 (match) · 3164 history records