Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb0f…084c sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$226 (-32%) realized −$253 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$164
other 12% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% -46.5%
≤30d 14 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% -46.5%
≤90d 14 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% -46.5%
all 14 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% -46.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 50% -46.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 50% -51.6%
15% -47.0% 43% -56.3%
20% -52.2% 7% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$48 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 71¢ 76¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) OlyBet SB 70¢ 100¢ $49 $70 +$21 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $11 +$4 +32%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $43 +$19 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $29 −$29 -99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $49 +$20 +40%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $33 +$12 +36%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $49 −$49 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $38 +$18 +48%
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $45 +$30 +67%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu Jun 27 $46 −$46 -99%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Amandine Hesse Jun 27 $7 +$3 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 70¢ $49 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $11 3h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $61 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 64¢ $29 5h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $43 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $69 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $49 6h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $51 6h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $51 6h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $41 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $45 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $33 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $49 10h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $57 10h
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $50 11h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $74 11h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $38 12h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 59¢ $45 12h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 67¢ $20 13h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 61¢ $46 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $50 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $50 13h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Amandine Hesse SELL Eva Vedder 100¢ $10 13h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Amandine Hesse BUY Eva Vedder 72¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.30 · official $174.89 (match) · 25 history records