Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb0d…b8dd sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% -13.7%
≤30d 13 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% -13.7%
≤90d 13 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% -13.7%
all 13 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 38% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 38% -21.9%
15% -13.5% 38% -29.5%
20% -22.0% 38% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jerome Kym 19¢ 31¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+63%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 50¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 25¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $5 +$9 +185%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5 +$18 +360%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $5 +$16 +320%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $15 +$8 +55%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 19¢ $4 46m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 50¢ $10 47m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $15 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 25¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 34¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 18¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 7¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 54¢ $15 2h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 99¢ $24 3h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 100¢ $10 3h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 49¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 37¢ $7 4h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 30¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 21¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 99¢ $22 4h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 48¢ $7 5h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 51¢ $10 6h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 23¢ $5 6h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 96¢ $23 6h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 61¢ $15 6h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bublik 43¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.73 · official $9.72 (match) · 23 history records