Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb03…2276 other 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$189 (+3%) realized +$190 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%144W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$333
14 days+$377
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$57
sports 17% +$176
world 1% +$35
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +53.0% +38.4% 73% 73% +24.1%
≤30d 52 +35.0% +22.2% 67% 67% +13.1%
≤90d 52 +35.0% +22.2% 67% 67% +13.1%
all 301 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 48% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 48% -5.3%
10% -18.2% 46% -14.4%
15% -26.1% 43% -22.6%
20% -33.4% 37% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses144 / 157
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)301 / 310
History coverage272d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$28 +180%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $70 +$13 +19%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$16 +32%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $29 +$11 +38%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $6 +$49 +874%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$43 +140%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 202 Jun 23 $50 +$12 +24%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$48 +156%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$13 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $40 +$27 +67%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $35 +$24 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $115 +$14 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$11 +53%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$17 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$19 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$23 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 8m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes $5 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 27¢ $15 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $15 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY 20¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 37h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $21 37h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $29 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 76¢ $50 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 202 BUY 80¢ $50 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 38¢ $31 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 69¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $115 4d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $30 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 78¢ $70 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.31 · official $148.98 · 499 history records