Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb01…5457 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-15%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%61W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$13
sports 24% −$2
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 84 -16.3% -24.3% 73% 36% -25.2%
all 84 -16.3% -24.3% 73% 36% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 36% -25.2%
10% -31.5% 6% -32.3%
15% -38.1% 4% -38.9%
20% -44.2% 2% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses61 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage85d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Mar 26 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +16%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Yandex (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 25 $1 $0 +12%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 25 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 25 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 81d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 82d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 82d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.90 · official $9.90 (match) · 163 history records