trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 71% | 59% | +4.8% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 71% | 59% | +4.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 71% | 59% | +4.8% |
| all | 17 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 71% | 59% | +4.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +5.4% | 59% | +4.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -4.7% | 29% | -5.2% |
| 15% | -13.9% | 18% | -14.4% |
| 20% | -22.4% | 12% | -22.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 71¢ | $228 | $236 | +$8 (+3%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | 68¢ | 66¢ | $137 | $133 | −$4 (-3%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 42¢ | 36¢ | $97 | $82 | −$14 (-15%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 73¢ | 74¢ | $40 | $41 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 77¢ | 79¢ | $18 | $18 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 18¢ | 24¢ | $14 | $18 | +$4 (+31%) |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 13¢ | $10 | $13 | +$3 (+30%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | No | 36¢ | 37¢ | $4 | $5 | +$0 (+3%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Yes | 67¢ | 19¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-71%) |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $13 | $0 | −$13 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 19 | $165 | −$9 | -6% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | Jun 18 | $33 | +$1 | +4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 18 | $93 | −$8 | -9% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | Jun 18 | $30 | +$4 | +14% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? | Jun 17 | $144 | +$31 | +22% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $37 | +$7 | +20% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | Jun 17 | $177 | +$55 | +31% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | Jun 17 | $37 | +$7 | +20% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $7 | +$6 | +82% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? | Jun 17 | $53 | +$15 | +28% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? | Jun 17 | $113 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? | Jun 17 | $89 | +$11 | +13% |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | Jun 17 | $131 | +$66 | +50% |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? | Jun 17 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? | Jun 16 | $72 | −$21 | -28% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? | Jun 16 | $144 | +$58 | +40% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | Jun 16 | $52 | −$2 | -4% |