Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EA 0xeafb…f246 crypto 2150 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$794 (+28%) realized +$800 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +155% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip
Net edge+96%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%1063W / 614L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day118.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days−$11
14 days+$657
30 days+$909
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,061
other 8% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+130.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 365 +207.2% +177.9% 36% 36% -20.0%
≤30d 1677 +154.8% +130.5% 63% 63% +30.4%
≤90d 1677 +154.8% +130.5% 63% 63% +30.4%
all 1677 +154.8% +130.5% 63% 63% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +130.5% 63% +30.4%
10% ← realistic here +108.5% 63% +17.9%
15% +88.3% 63% +6.5%
20% +69.9% 63% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +155% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +253% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$800
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1063 / 614
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1677 / 2150
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day118.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1677 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+127%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+127%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -849%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.75 · official $28.21 · 3500 history records