Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xeaf8…d785 crypto 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$904 (-4%) realized −$867 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%80W / 39L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$431
world 16% −$501
sports 12% −$130
other 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +56.9% +42.0% 62% 53% -8.1%
≤30d 32 +56.9% +42.0% 62% 53% -8.1%
≤90d 98 +12.9% +2.1% 68% 41% -13.7%
all 119 +25.8% +13.8% 67% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 44% -13.2%
10% +2.9% 27% -21.5%
15% -7.0% 18% -29.1%
20% -16.1% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$82 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$867
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses80 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage122d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 33¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $91 −$57 -62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $111 +$46 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$35 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $95 +$14 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$61 -60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $43 +$17 +39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $73 +$24 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$18 -59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $70 +$19 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $106 −$25 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 +$12 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$81 -81%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$27 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $133 +$20 +15%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $135 −$2 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $202 −$91 -45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$70 -70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $282 +$108 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $47 −$35 -75%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$51 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $65 +$28 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $24 −$11 -47%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$16 -31%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 12 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $70 −$63 -90%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $55 −$34 -61%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $101 −$8 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 13 $30 +$14 +45%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 12 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 12 $40 −$28 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Will FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 11 $40 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 11 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 09 $240 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 09 $250 +$67 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 09 $343 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $111 22m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $100 39m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 45m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $100 54m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 23¢ $34 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $157 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 86¢ $136 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $109 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $40 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $40 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $55 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $60 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $13 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $130 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $18 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 92¢ $17 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $12 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 23¢ $12 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $60 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.86 · official $2.63 (match) · 292 history records