Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf8…641e other 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,599 (+60%) realized +$1,679 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 56L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$451
14 days+$1,268
30 days+$1,383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,455
other 44% −$100
politics 2% −$48
crypto 1% −$15
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -8.3% -17.1% 31% 30% -37.0%
≤30d 86 -1.4% -10.8% 35% 34% +44.0%
≤90d 86 -1.4% -10.8% 35% 34% +44.0%
all 86 -1.4% -10.8% 35% 34% +44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 34% +44.0%
10% -19.4% 31% +30.2%
15% -27.2% 28% +17.7%
20% -34.3% 26% +6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +59% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$20 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$1,679
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 56
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions11
Markets (closed)86 / 97
History coverage20d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -53%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $16 +$2 +13%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $443 −$439 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 +$50 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$54 +262%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$21 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +145%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 +$8 +27%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$48 +104%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 9m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 9m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 9m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 22m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 30m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 19¢ $2 3h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 5h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $392 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 18¢ $5 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.22 · official $103.24 (match) · 174 history records