Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf3…3fb9 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$4
politics 29% $0
other 18% +$5
sports 6% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 31% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 31% 8% -9.8%
all 59 +1.2% -8.4% 29% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage330d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $80 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $42 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $41 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Aug 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $41 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $37 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $25 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $7 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $37 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $37 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $40 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $34 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.25 · official $41.23 (match) · 272 history records