Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf2…f473 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$130 (-8%) realized −$131 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$100
14 days−$120
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$317
other 48% −$275
world 3% −$40
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -28.6% -35.4% 36% 36% +12.4%
≤30d 33 -31.9% -38.3% 30% 30% -5.5%
≤90d 33 -31.9% -38.3% 30% 30% -5.5%
all 33 -31.9% -38.3% 30% 30% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 30% -5.5%
10% -44.2% 30% -14.5%
15% -49.6% 30% -22.8%
20% -54.6% 27% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$34 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage18d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $80 +$72 +90%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$23 +75%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 25 $38 +$22 +59%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$101 +165%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$79 -68%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$76 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 26m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $80 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 56¢ $30 33h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 62¢ $38 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $61 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 8d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $82 8d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $49 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $77 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 10d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 10d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 12d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 12d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.92 · official $30.92 (match) · 48 history records