Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EA 0xeaf1…09b7 sports 272 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,649 (-13%) realized −$14,889 · open +$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%123W / 146L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1,241est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$652
14 days−$747
30 days−$4,808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$13,819
other 13% −$246
world 3% −$1,143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.6% +0.1% 57% 48% -25.0%
≤30d 77 -18.4% -26.2% 36% 30% -39.3%
≤90d 240 -13.8% -22.0% 45% 42% -21.8%
all 269 -13.4% -21.7% 46% 42% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -21.8%
10% -29.2% 36% -29.2%
15% -36.0% 30% -36.1%
20% -42.3% 22% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$323 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized−$14,889
Unrealized+$240
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses123 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,241
Open positions3
Markets (closed)269 / 272
History coverage234d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 46¢ 100¢ $186 $408 +$222 (+120%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 36¢ 60¢ $41 $69 +$28 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner MASQ 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $301 +$52 +17%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$106 +738%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $44 −$43 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $382 +$60 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $147 +$117 +79%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $138 −$136 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $32 −$27 -82%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $401 +$38 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 +$41 +10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $492 +$71 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $633 −$633 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $58 +$37 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $54 +$44 +83%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $67 +$29 +44%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $400 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $13 +$102 +785%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $286 −$50 -18%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $101 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $52 −$51 -99%
Spread: Malta (-1.5) Jun 05 $300 −$300 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $301 +$60 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1,208 −$1,194 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $367 −$362 -99%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $29 +$60 +207%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 04 $64 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $469 −$140 -30%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 03 $161 −$159 -99%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $233 −$230 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group D May 31 $378 −$375 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $229 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $241 −$43 -18%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs against All authority - Map 1 Winner May 30 $96 −$94 -98%
Map Handicap: YAW (-2.5) vs UNO MILLE (+2.5) May 30 $33 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $137 −$135 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 28 $325 +$356 +109%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) May 28 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - NODWIN May 28 $83 −$81 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 59¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 41¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY MASQ 47¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 90¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 79¢ $116 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 67¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 36¢ $42 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 76¢ $101 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $354 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $301 17h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 21¢ $31 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 10¢ $13 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 12¢ $14 23h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 81¢ $101 27h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 85¢ $100 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $382 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $147 43h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY No 41¢ $58 43h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY No 40¢ $80 44h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Oxuji Esports 19¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Oxuji Esports 19¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Oxuji Esports 19¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Oxuji Esports 18¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Oxuji Esports 20¢ $28 45h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY Passion Academy 29¢ $51 47h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $401 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $401 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $96 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $492 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.38 · official $477.38 (match) · 681 history records