Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xeaf0…e6a9 politics 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$22
other 35% −$15
sports 13% +$27
tech 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 138 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage127d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $203 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $292 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $279 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $283 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $215 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $264 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $287 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $295 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $307 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $294 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 19d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 21d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $203 21d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $203 22d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 23d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $292 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $292 25d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 25d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 25d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $241 25d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $241 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 26d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 26d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $267 27d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 28d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $242 28d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $242 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records