Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xeaef…db07 sports 973 markets active 0h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$68 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%610W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$38
14 days+$46
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$94
other 1% +$16
politics 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$14
culture 0% −$7
world 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 54% -5.1%
≤30d 181 +4.9% -5.1% 68% 48% -6.8%
≤90d 384 +1.3% -8.3% 70% 48% -7.6%
all 971 -1.2% -10.6% 63% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 48% -9.0%
10% -19.2% 34% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 26% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses610 / 361
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)971 / 973
History coverage261d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 971 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 62¢ 74¢ $31 $37 +$6 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $5 +$14 +267%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $36 +$4 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $10 −$3 -24%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $24 +$11 +45%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $61 +$7 +11%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $22 +$17 +77%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $9 −$8 -88%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $6 −$5 -80%
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon Jun 24 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$4 +80%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $49 +$10 +20%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Game Handicap: OG (-2.5) vs Grind Back (+2.5) Jun 23 $0 $0 -90%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $16 +$3 +19%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $6 +$12 +214%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 −$3 -49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$13 +110%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $21 +$3 +15%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $88 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 +$10 +56%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $29 +$6 +22%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $14 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $26 +$14 +55%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $9 $0 +6%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $6 +$14 +230%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $9 +$6 +65%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $3 +$2 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $28 +$6 +20%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $20 26m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 27¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL D family 100¢ $40 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko SELL Jelena Ostapenko 38¢ $4 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko SELL Tatjana Maria 61¢ $4 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 60¢ $4 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 90¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 90¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $30 17h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $8 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 18h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 90¢ $18 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 69¢ $34 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $68 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 90¢ $61 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 47¢ $24 23h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 41¢ $8 28h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu SELL Jiaqi Wang 90¢ $15 28h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu SELL Jiaqi Wang 90¢ $1 28h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu SELL Jiaqi Wang 90¢ $1 29h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu SELL Jiaqi Wang 90¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 30h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu BUY Jiaqi Wang 90¢ $18 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $10 34h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 99¢ $40 43h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 56¢ $22 44h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 6¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Eternal Fire 12¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.25 · official $37.75 (match) · 2821 history records