Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaef…cd2a sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$12 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$68
crypto 25% −$72
other 11% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤30d 14 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 14 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -12.5%
all 14 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 50% -12.5%
10% -21.9% 43% -20.9%
15% -29.4% 43% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 36% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$51 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner United States 68¢ 66¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $31 +$38 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$17 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 +$48 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $68 +$87 +129%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$37 -73%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$109 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner BUY United States 68¢ $50 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $118 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Croatia 44¢ $31 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $68 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $102 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 35¢ $20 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil $14 5d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $51 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.22 · official $145.22 (match) · 31 history records