Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaee…2eff other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$903 (+1%) realized +$903 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,255per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$24
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$59
politics 43% −$74
sports 2% +$1,010
culture 2% −$4
crypto 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 +7.7% -2.6% 15% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 94 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 6% -8.9%
all 94 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 5% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 5% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,644) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$3 · ×43.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized+$903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1,255
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $657 $657 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,060 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $829 +$2 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,752 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $5,187 −$8 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,818 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $3,732 −$6 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 04 $473 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $2,605 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,133 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,201 −$2 -0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $45 +$47 +105%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $3,222 −$4 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $43 +$42 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $2,591 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $1,609 −$3 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $2,479 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 14 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $3,673 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $1,681 −$3 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,609 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,608 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $766 +$1,058 +138%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $403 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $403 4h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $402 5h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $402 7h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $394 9h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $394 11h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $657 28h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,028 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,060 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,061 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $830 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $831 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $954 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $955 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 11d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,023 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 13d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $943 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $945 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $764 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.52 · official $656.52 (match) · 286 history records