Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xeaed…2dd6 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$150 (+19%) realized +$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$120
14 days+$193
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$84
politics 24% +$14
sports 8% +$59
crypto 7% +$43
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.7% +10.1% 80% 80% +10.7%
≤30d 7 +30.3% +17.9% 86% 71% +12.7%
≤90d 7 +30.3% +17.9% 86% 71% +12.7%
all 7 +30.3% +17.9% 86% 71% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 71% +12.7%
10% +6.6% 57% +1.9%
15% -3.7% 57% -7.9%
20% -13.1% 57% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$7 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×29.76 per $1 lost it wins $29.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $402 +$45 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 +$5 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 +$43 +75%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $186 +$14 +8%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 +$59 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $447 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $402 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 6d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 93¢ $186 8d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 51¢ $61 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records