Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaec…b66d other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$43
sports 28% −$30
politics 8% −$5
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$8
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage138d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $513 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $399 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $659 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $704 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $172 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $287 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $346 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $405 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $281 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 11h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 12h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 20h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 22h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 23h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 24h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 26h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 35h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $49 39h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 41h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 42h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 44h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.14 · official $48.14 (match) · 1444 history records