Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xeaec…32a1 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,824 (+105%) realized +$1,832 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2,122
other 29% −$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+87.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +106.9% +87.2% 33% 33% +159.5%
≤30d 12 +106.9% +87.2% 33% 33% +159.5%
≤90d 12 +106.9% +87.2% 33% 33% +159.5%
all 12 +106.9% +87.2% 33% 33% +159.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +87.2% 33% +159.5%
10% +69.2% 33% +134.6%
15% +52.9% 33% +112.0%
20% +37.9% 33% +91.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +187% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +187% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +245% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$556 vs −$50 · ×11.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.53 per $1 lost it wins $5.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$1,832
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions18
Markets (closed)12 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $62 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Australia leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $418 +$1,982 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $197 −$192 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$93 +1396%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 +$54 +119%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $69 30m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 30m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 31m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $63 52m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 56m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 57m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $39 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $37 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 1h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.58 · official $603.60 (match) · 49 history records