Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeae9…9988 crypto 1735 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,275 (+65%) realized +$8,278 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%876W / 862L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day92.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,097
sports 2% +$71
other 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 -75.4% -77.7% 19% 1% -14.5%
≤30d 1738 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 43% -5.2%
≤90d 1738 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 43% -5.2%
all 1738 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 43% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 43% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 43% -14.2%
15% -26.8% 42% -22.5%
20% -34.0% 42% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$8,278
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses876 / 862
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1738 / 1735
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day92.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1738 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $150 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $75 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $44 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $45 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.34 · official $157.34 (match) · 3500 history records