Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EA 0xeae8…7f85 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$508 (+21%) realized +$499 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$328
7 days+$718
14 days+$478
30 days+$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$904
other 35% −$186
crypto 22% −$237
world 2% −$50
weather 2% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +35.4% +22.5% 40% 40% +53.1%
≤30d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 37% 33% +18.8%
≤90d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 37% 33% +18.8%
all 27 +1.8% -7.9% 37% 33% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 33% +18.8%
10% -16.7% 33% +7.4%
15% -24.8% 30% -2.9%
20% -32.1% 26% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$48 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$739
Realized+$499
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions9
Markets (closed)27 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $300 $312 +$13 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $132 +$181 +136%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$486 +474%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $75 −$73 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$447 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $82 −$16 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $62 −$24 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$9 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 58¢ $101 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 14h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 16h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 25h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 29¢ $51 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY 3¢ $15 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $738.86 · official $838.86 · 70 history records