Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeae7…fac4 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
politics 22% $0
other 14% +$1
sports 9% −$9
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -0.4% -9.8% 39% 0% -9.5%
all 81 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage534d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 46¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $36 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $76 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $58 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $87 +$4 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $51 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $166 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $44 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $79 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $26 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $24 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 10 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $3 $0 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $38 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $41 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 78¢ $37 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $35 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $30 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $40 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $24 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $43 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $46 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.16 · official $41.14 (match) · 325 history records