Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xeae4…1dae other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,628 (-32%) realized −$1,507 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$873
7 days−$1,488
14 days−$1,474
30 days−$1,474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$921
sports 20% −$174
world 10% −$500
economics 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.9% -46.5% 36% 21% -39.7%
≤30d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 27% -39.2%
≤90d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 27% -39.2%
all 17 -27.2% -34.1% 47% 29% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 29% -38.6%
10% -40.4% 29% -44.5%
15% -46.2% 24% -49.8%
20% -51.5% 12% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$222 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$1,507
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage205d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 64¢ 50¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-23%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,012 +$155 +8%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $609 −$600 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $202 +$70 +35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Jun 07 $21 +$14 +67%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 09 $73 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 56m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 56m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $202 56m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $2,167 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,012 3h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $52 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 90¢ $272 32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $202 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 100¢ $100 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 5d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 50¢ $101 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 189d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 75¢ $75 189d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 197d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 197d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $50 202d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.85 · official $228.85 (match) · 234 history records